西安不锈钢精轧管及西安不锈钢精密管生产厂家

摘要：<span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"><span style="font-size:small;">西安不锈钢精轧管及西安不锈钢精密管生产厂家</span></span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;1</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、西安不锈钢精轧管行业主要特点。</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">(1)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">成長(cháng)性好于普钢，周期性强于普钢，且近几年的多(duō)次经验表明，西安不锈钢精轧管和普钢复苏的时点基本相同，但景气反弹的力度更大，见顶的时间也更早</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;(2)2016</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年中國(guó)精密不锈钢管行业直接和间接出口量占产量的比重為(wèi)</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">36%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，超出普钢</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">13</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">个百分(fēn)点</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">精密不锈钢管的终端消费领域中，厨具白電(diàn)业占</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">45%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，建筑装饰业仅占</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">19%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，而普钢近</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">54%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的需求集中在建筑地产领域，表明西安不锈钢精轧管的需求更依赖出口和消费品</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;(3)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">由于技术等原因，精密不锈钢管项目达产周期较長(cháng)，行业实际有(yǒu)效产能(néng)通常比统计产能(néng)低，因此在西安不锈钢精轧管行业集中度较高</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">(CR5</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">达到</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">70%)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的背景下，其需求趋势更值得关注</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;(4)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">目前國(guó)内精密不锈钢管产量中，</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">300</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">系</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">(</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">铬镍系</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">占比超过</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">50%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，镍的成本占</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">304</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">冷轧精密不锈钢管价的</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">50%-90%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，因此精密不锈钢管行业盈利对镍价及镍库量高度敏感，需求结构也会受到镍价影响，但需求总量受镍价影响不大。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">2</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、今年上半年西安不锈钢精轧管行业景气有(yǒu)望继续好于普钢。预计中國(guó)经济增速前高后低，全年</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">增</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">10%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，且出口和消费对</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的贡献将加大，这意味着上半年精密不锈钢管的高需求得以延续的概率较大。目前國(guó)内外精密不锈钢管与普钢价格的比值、精密不锈钢管企业的盈利均处于历史低位，我们认為(wèi)精密不锈钢管价上行空间将超过普钢，行业盈利能(néng)力也将底部回升。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">3</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、兼并重组及技术进步是未来行业发展方向。目前中國(guó)精密不锈钢管行业集中度显著低于其他(tā)各國(guó)，而发达國(guó)家精密不锈钢管钢企业之间仍可(kě)能(néng)继续重组，以进一步提升區(qū)域及全球市场竞争力，因此未来國(guó)内规模以上的精密不锈钢管企业之间兼并重组的可(kě)能(néng)性较大</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">与此同时，我们认為(wèi)國(guó)内精密不锈钢管厂加大研发和生产</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">400</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">系及双相精密不锈钢管产量的力度也将进一步加大。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">4</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、投资建议。基于对各品种钢以及精密不锈钢管行业的景气趋势判断，我们给予精密不锈钢管行业“推荐</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">A</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">”的投资评级。目前國(guó)内</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">A</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">股上市公司中，仅太钢不锈和宝钢股份主要生产精密不锈钢管板材，抚顺特钢主要生产精密不锈钢管長(cháng)材、其中太钢不锈是國(guó)内精密不锈钢管行业的龙头，</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">2010</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年上半年我们重点推荐太钢不锈，给予其”推荐</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">A</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">“的投资评级大多(duō)数的使用(yòng)要**長(cháng)期保持建筑物(wù)的原有(yǒu)外貌。在确选用(yòng)的精密不锈钢管类型时，主要考虑的是所要求的审美标准、所在地大气的腐蚀性以及要采用(yòng)的清理(lǐ)制度。然而，其它应用(yòng)越来越多(duō)的只是寻求结构的完整性或不透水性。例如，工业建筑的屋顶和侧墙。在这些应用(yòng)中，物(wù)主的建造成本可(kě)能(néng)比审美更為(wèi)重要，表面不很(hěn)干净也可(kě)以。在干燥的室内环境中使用(yòng)</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">304</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">精密不锈钢管效果相当好。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體(tǐ);font-size:small;"> </span>